While much of the network attention is focused on the battle for the GOP nomination, the Obama campaign has been building on their impressive organizing success of 2008 in preparation for 2012. There is little doubt that the 2008 Obama campaign was arguably the most successful campaign in the history of American politics. In particular the campaign incorporated new technology and social media in a comprehensive and strategic way that provided interactive tools to allow supporters to be active and engaged right from home. Meanwhile it was able to break all records in terms of fundraising. However what may have been lost in the technology hype was the incredible army of volunteers that the campaign organized to go door to door and make phone calls as campaigns have done for decades. Take a look at how the Obama team is preparing for the 2012 campaign. Are there any elements of campaign organizing and strategy that are surprising? What do you think will be the keys to organizing a victorious campaign for 2012?
While I can’t say that had I been legally able to vote in 2008 that I would have for Mr. Obama, I can still look back at his ability to blow his competition out of the water and say that I admire his incredible strategy. The question is, will he be able to do it again? Even Mr. Axelrod who is Mr. Obama’s “chief political guru” said” it’s not as trendy to be an Obama supporter as it was back in 2008.” Back in 2008 people were excited to see something new for the role of the presidency. According to a CBS News/New York Times poll Bush was leaving office with a 22% approval rating. The people of America wanted change and that was exactly what this new face for the presidency offered them.
ReplyDeleteNow, people know Obama. They have seen him in action and seen what he can do. He has had some memorable moments in the last four years like the elimination of the world’s biggest threat Osama Bin Laden and cash for clunkers, but I don’t think this will be enough to point out in getting people to vote for him again for the next four years. The economy still remains in the trenches and unemployment stays at an absurd 9%. We have seen that that is the number one concern of the “average Joe” in America and in order for Obama to win reelection he will have to sell himself on prioritizing these issues. In the last campaign with the “door to door” old school style of literally reaching out to people, Obama had incredible success and surprised the republicans with his technique. It will be incredibly interesting to see what new strategies he has up his sleeve for the new election, because this time, everything will become a bigger challenge including the republican candidate.
It is clear that the Obama campaign has to do things a little differently this time around. In the 2008 the presidency was his for the taking, this time around is going to be more of challenge. His slogan for the 08 election was "Change" and "Hope", Obama himself said the whole "HOPE" thing is old already and it's time to focus on something new.
ReplyDeleteThe one thing Obama has over any potential republican nominee is his army of volunteers. Mostly comprised of young college men and women that are willing to go door to door and make all night phone calls to assure the people that Obama is the way to in 2012. These volunteers along with Obama's catchy slogans, and ad campaigns were the reasons why the 08 election was such a blowout.
For this coming up election the Obama campaign will focus what Obama has done so far in the white house and that is Automobile bailout, winding down the war in Iraq, and most of all the killing of Osama Bin Laden. They will also be promoting his new health care law. James Carvile says however, though Obama has had some accomplishments, the only thing that counts is where the economy is standing.
Obama's campaign will be sure to make ads stating that if a republican is elected president, they would reinstate policies that led to the economic crisis in the first place. Now whether that's true or not it doesnt matter, that what gets people to vote.
The article also say that Obama has some breathing in terms of winning states. It list states that he won in 08 that he doesnt need to win again and still be elected for a second term. The campaign also says they are trying to win over both Georgia and Arizona which havnt been Democratic since the 90's. I personally dont think thats a good idea and that campaign should instead focus there attention on winning over the states are borderline like FL or PA.
In 2008, President Obama's campaign broke fund-raising records and not because they had the highest donations. They had a lot of people who gave smaller amounts. This gave people the feeling that they were connected to the success of the campaign which motivated them to get others to vote for him as well.
ReplyDeleteFor all the talk about how social media will be important in the upcoming election, the article makes the point that there is nothing like ringing doorbells or speaking to neighbors to convince someone to vote for your candidate. In that respect, the Obama campaign is organized. They know how to do the leg work and how important it is. I think that these people are the key to a successful 2012 campaign. Even if the economy is still hurting, since these people are able to highlight his other successes and mold them in a positive light they can influence the independent voters.
The Obama campaign certainly has different challenges in his reelection campaign as opposed to his election campaign. The honey-moon is over and he needs to convince his constituents to stay with him even though the luster of 2008 is long gone. Many young voters are disenfranchised with him as is evident by the anger over the economy and the bailouts. Many liberals are upset that he didn't close guantanamo, surrender in Afghanistan, or pass enough "green" legislation, and he needs to win them over again as well. however he does have actual legislation to run on, unlike last time. He can run on Obamacare, even though it is being challenged in the courts as was written in the article, as well as the Stimulus, fulfilling his promise of pulling out of Iraq, etc. He also will try to run as a referendum on Congress and the Republican nominees as he did about Bush, against McCain in 2008. Instead of "Change we can believe in" this time it will be "I'm not as bad as the other guys."
ReplyDeleteBack in 2008, as mentioned by previous bloggers, one of Obama’s strongest campaign strategies was his door-to-door effort. Obama would recruit volunteers to go around different communities knock on the door and pitch his promotion. His efforts really hit home, they built a strong connection between him and the general public. I can recall, when the federal election was going on in Canada, the conservative candidate, in my riding who was running for a member of parliament did the same. I volunteered to go door-to-door campaigning and our goal was to build a strong connection with the voters. It worked Peter Kent won in our riding by a landslide. Many voters told me how much the door - to - door effort made a difference in there voting, it showed that someone really cared about them and their vote. This is one of the strongest campaign techniques, and Obama should continue to use this.
ReplyDeleteAnother issue Obama should be stressing in his campaign is the economy. The economy according to almost all polls is the most important issue of the upcoming election. I believe Mr. Rutenberg, the author of the article, makes a very good point when he said “ Obama’s aides will argue that the worst economic outcome was averted and that the Republican nominee would reinstate policies that led to the crisis”. Obama has to make it clear that the Republicans are the ones who drove the economy into the ground. He has to make it clear that it takes time to improve the state of the economy, and that they should not be impatient and that a quick fix is not the best option. Most importantly, he has to put fear into the American people if they elect a Republican that the economy will only get worse. This fear should help prevent voters from voting Republican, thus increasing his chances of re-election.
I think that Obama has to continue his strategies used in the 2008 election. As everyone has outlined, including Professor Epstein, Obama's campaign in 2008 was one of the most impressive in history so why wouldn't he continue using those strategies? Especially since people clearly liked these efforts.
ReplyDeleteThe unfortunate thing for the Obama campaign is that when you are the current President, I dont think people look at the campaign as much as they look at what is going on at the time in the world. When you running for an election the only thing the citizens can base their vote on is what the campaign is saying, nothing about doing. But when you are the person running the country you are being judged on how you have run the country on the past 4 years.
I wouldn't quite say that Obama needs to "put fear into the American people," but I do believe that the upbeat "Hope and change" message of the Obama campaign should not be what the Obama campaign focuses on in this campaign, due to obviously different circumstances than 2008. I think he does have to stress how the Republican candidates are not better equipped to deal with the economic problems that the country faces.
ReplyDeleteThis notwithstanding, he still should stress what he has accomplished in office and how the lack of cooperation from Congress has stymied his and the Democrats efforts. Ideas like the basketball game we discussed in class, as well as raffles for dinner with the President (which is something the campaign has done multiple times already) are creative campaign strategies that should be utilized. (Actually as I'm writing this, I got another email from the Obama campaign about one of these dinners).
In 2008 Obama was the new face on the block, and utilized the web to contact his supporters and raise funds in new and ingenious ways. Now he is the President and we all know who he. We are also suffering from an Economic downturn that is at the forefront of the mind of the average American.
ReplyDeleteI believe President Obama will have less money with which to campaign as the primary source of his money (all those people who donated a dollar or more online) are now concerned with saving said money and may be less inclined to give it to him. However, he has already established and developed the means by which he contacts the American people and as such may require less money to fund his campaign.
I believe he might find it useful to run his campaign on the smallest budget possible while still remaining competitive and to advertise this fact as it might indicate his understanding and commitment to fix the perceived economic crisis, even to those who might dispute said claim.
There is nothing in president obama's 2012 campaign strategy that i find surprising or even shocking.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, i think that it is typical for him, or any candidate from either political party to try to get more votes by blaming everything on the opposition party. Some of it may be true, but all of it is blamed on the other party, which is a lie.
President Obama has his faults, just like most other presidents have had. What is wrong, in my opinion is the fact that he is trying to put the blame on his failed policies on the Republicans. The people voted him in because they thought he could fix the country. The Democrats had majority in congress. But once the people began to see how unsuccessful some of his policies were, they voted the republicans back into congress.
He thinks that all of his failures are due to Republicans. But in reality, only some of it was. The rest was because he didn't come up with good solutions. A good candidate must take responsibility for their actions and admit it when they have failed in something.
By using the excuse of the republicans standing in his way, in addition to his successes (Osama, pull out troops from Iraq, etc.), he believes that he may just stand a chance of getting reelected.
But, it appears that the country is divided right now, and despite any good things the president may have done, this is still going to be a close race.
I think the article put it well when it said this campaign will probably be about "why we couldn't". Bill Clinton used a similar approach i describing the government shutdowns early in his first term, which I think is very comparable to last summer's debt ceiling chaos and the general "just say no" campaign that the GOP seems to have taken up. One of this campaign's strengths is the weakness of any GOP candidate, and how better to exploit that then by going negative (or, getting "feisty" as the article puts it)? Romney and Gingrich alike have been on both sides of the isle on many issues, and have many skeletons that Obama may as well bring to light.
ReplyDeleteBut on top of that, the hopeful message should remain. A new vice presidential candidate would help keep Obama's image as something new. Obama is also an excellent debater, so butting heads with his contender in debates should take place as early and often as possible. Finally, the president has achievements to run on. The stimulus package had a very real effect on Detroit, if nothing else. Why not bring up a "Joe the Car Mechanic"? His foreign policy achievements are certainly worth bragging about. Republicans are so focused on the economy because there is little else to critique Obama about, and if I were his advisor, I would make that a catchphrase.
Posted for David:
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I don't really find the Obama campaign's organizing and strategic efforts to be that surprising, especially the examination of previous campaigns. Candidates for office have always looked to historical campaigns in order to avoid similar mistakes or to copy effective methods. Tony Blair for example based his campaign for British Prime Minister during the late 90s exclusively on the presidential campaigns of Bill Clinton, to such a degree that he even made similar (and perhaps exactly the same) statements (reform oriented rhetoric like Clinton) and used similar reform efforts within his own party. Blair even hired many of Clinton's campaign workers. Such efforts to copy or avoid past campaign successes and failures are proven methods that often pay off. What I do find surprising is the degree of campaign organization that is not only already in place but is already taking action. The numbers Rutenberg provides for how many supporters made calls on behalf of Anthony R. Foxx (200,000) compared to those by his opponent (20,000) is truly remarkable. While I know that telephone calls are still a part of the campaign strategy I was surprised at how significant a part it's playing in the Obama/Democrat campaign, and at how effective it appears to be. I had thought that by now (especially with the previous campaign's emphasis on the internet) tools such as email and Twitter would have eclipsed more mundane campaign strategies like telephone calls. If the Obama campaign can maintain that level and organization of support then he may very well win re-election by a landslide. However, other strategies such as those Obama used during his previous campaign (specifically methods utilizing the internet) are also keys to his potential victory. The most important key to victory is of course a major change/success that Obama can claim and use to re-gain support from those who might have lost faith in him, in addition to (as Rutenberg mentions) blaming Republicans for the economic recession and his failure to fix it, promoting the benefits of his healthcare law and bailing out the auto industry, along with killing Osama bin Ladin and ending the war in Iraq.
I was surprised by the Obama campaign's presence in the North Carolina elections. While the Obama campaign may see that as merely a test run for their 2012 campaign it seems (in my opinion) to be reminiscent of the type of interference in elections used by Wilson and the Roosevelts to prevent opponents from being elected to positions that would have made their administrations and elections far more difficult.
Posted for Eyal:
ReplyDeleteAs effective as the ground troops were in rallying the voters in the 2008 election- how much more effective can they get
In the article it stated that The Obama Campaign had taken over many of the states that have been won by the Republicans for many years. One of Obama's strategists said they are going to target the states that are usually Republican won and ones that they didn't win last year. Why would they spread themselves so thin? They should focus more on keeping the states they won last election, especially those that were mostly republican won in the past. If they have the same results as last election they will surely win.
Regardless, it seems the economy's current status is going to have the biggest influence in the next election. Whether or not it was or is Obama's fault, the incumbent President generally takes the blame. So unless Obama finds a way to revive the economy rather than deflect the blame, it doesn't matter how many ground troops he has.
Posted for Robert:
ReplyDeleteThe American people will vote based on the economic idexes and the unemployment numbers in the next election. If the economy doesn't improve between now and then Obama's only strategy is to pin it on the Republicans or hope that the American people feel that it was the Republicans who got us into this mess in the first place. Obama will still be able to mobilize a substantial number of supporters for his campaign but the Republicans might have learned their lesson from previous defeats and devise a more effective strategy of their own. The problem with attempting to pin the economy on the Republicans is that, like the article said, independent voters dislike negative campaigning. Better to have a plan of action and to fight for changes in the congress that way your emphasizing your positives and seeking to elimanate the obstacles for implementing those positives.
I hope I can still post. I am not surprised at the strategic lengths campaigns go to in order to do what (they think)will ensure a win. I suppose that the secret nature of President Obama's vote soliciting agents is kind of odd. But perhaps not letting everyone know your strategy is a key to winning the battle. Obviously social networking and the media are capitalized on in this en devour. Call me old school but I take professional people and positions less seriously when they say things like "follow me on twitter" or "friend me on facebook." Call me crazy maybe the average American likes this fast food type of communication relationship.
ReplyDeleteI do think President Obama will win again. But if his campaign is one that is contrary to a potential conservative President I don't think that is a battle he can win. The country is in the dumps and he is in office- that is the fact. A Republican campaign will without a doubt win the battle of "who puts the country in a worse place". To ensure a win in 2012, President Obama needs to give incentive why he should continue his efforts as President, with vision and maybe even hope.